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An ex-colonel from the special forces, government minister Al Carns has recently been making strategic moves cautioning that the UK must ready itself for war with Russia.

“The shadow of war is at Europe’s door once more. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to prevent it,” he said, in comments that go beyond previous warnings by his boss, the defence secretary.

“As a whole society – what is their role if we get caught in an existential crisis, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a military endeavour?”

It was blunt language from the 45-year-old Scottish-born MP, who has had an remarkably rapid rise to his role of armed forces minister.

Rapid Rise to Prominence

Naturally for a politician with a history of service in the armed forces, there is conjecture about whether he is future leadership material – as with, at various points, previous colleagues from a service background before him.

This time, however, some ruling party MPs think there could be a real prospect of Carns being a candidate if and when the opportunity presents itself.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been involved in politics for longer than it seems, as a former defence advisor to three previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the risk of being over-promoted as a politician with a personal history colleagues think will appeal to the public – without enough thought of whether they have the track record and shrewdness to make it to the top.

Military Career and Transition

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and state educated, before joining the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “for gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a surprise when he left the armed forces after 24 years of service to stand as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, shortly before he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately earmarked as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a junior veterans minister straight after the 2024 election. He was elevated later that year to the more senior role with a portfolio covering all the military.

Public Profile and Partisan Combat

Chiselled and confident, Carns has been an occasional media performer for the government, and has been an sharp partisan operator when putting pressure on rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to set a new global benchmark this year along with former military colleagues by ascending the world's highest peak in under five days without acclimatising on the mountain, using xenon gas.

Ambitions and Party Skepticism

His name entered the conversation as a possible future leader in earnest around the time of a leadership election last autumn, when his supporters began canvassing colleagues about a run for the job. That did not gain traction, with the prime minister's office strongly supporting another candidate.

Since then, feature articles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to prevent from ousting the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be prime ministerial timber, others think he is making himself appear too ambitious when there is no vacancy at the top. There is also a apprehension about the meteoric ascent of a star performer from outside politics.

“There’s no evidence that being senior in the military equates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” notes one MP. “He is completely untested.”