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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by significant margins in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in the final phase, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd