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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. However, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or just the greatest surprise.

However the latest competition is profoundly different. The list of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions declining and recent also-rans rising in unison. In an normal year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a normal season!

Where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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